I’m going to evaluate the win expectancy of pitching to contact as compared to pitching “regularly” to lead off an inning, and we’ll see whether the concept - if not the literal words - makes sense. If we think about what a pitcher controls in a given plate appearance rather than the eventual result of that appearance, we can give Smoltz’s statement the earnest scrutiny it deserves, because what a Hall of Fame pitcher thinks about the proper way to attack an opposing team is worth evaluating. They don’t have exclusive control over whether the batter walks, either. Pitchers don’t have exclusive control over whether the batter at the plate hits a home run. That’s pretty close to what Smoltz said, at least if you adjust for the fact that human beings are awful at discussing probabilistic outcomes. Just don’t pitch in a way that makes it likely you’ll walk him.” You don’t care if your strike-throwing approach makes him more likely to hit a homer. Think of this statement: “The last thing you want to do is take an approach that makes it likely you’ll walk the leadoff hitter after the team gave you four runs. If we think a little more about process, and a little less about outcomes, this silly debate takes on new light. The meatiest meatball Morton could throw is far from a certain home run. Position players lob plenty of objectively terrible pitchers that don’t leave the yard every time they handle mop-up duty. Consider this: no major league pitcher has ever thrown a pitch that they knew with certainty would turn into a home run when it left their hand. That said: I don’t think that’s what Smoltz meant. There’s just no way a rational observer could come to any other conclusion. The only outcome of a solo home run is a run scoring.

The worst-case outcome of a walk is a run scoring. Sure, it’s fun to point at a statement like that and laugh.

In fact, I think that if you give him a little leeway, he might have a point. Here’s a bit of an upset: I understood what Smoltz was talking about. “You’re not being facetious, you actually mean that? You’d rather have a run on the board than a runner at first base?” Smoltz stuck to his guns, said he preferred the homer to the walk, and that was that. Aaron Goldsmith, handling play-by-play, asked Smoltz to elaborate.

Im still standing paul morton